The Islamic State Challenge to al-Shabaab Having described the conflict between the various Islamic State
cells in Somalia, this article now looks at the extent these upstart
Islamic State cells challenge al-Shabaab’s prolonged hegemony as
Somalia’s preeminent jihadi group. It is useful to examine this from
three dimensions: capacity for violence, capability for governance,
and propaganda efforts.
Assessing ISS vs. al-Shabaab on Violence In considering capacity for violence, a key determinant is how
many fighters each group has. When Mumin first defected from
al-Shabaab to form the Islamic State in Somalia, initial reports
suggested that only 20 of the 300 al-Shabaab fighters from his al-
Shabaab cell in Somalia’s northern autonomous Puntland region
decided to leave with him.
e
Despite this inauspicious beginning,
upper estimates suggested that at its peak, the group had at least
200 people.
29
However, due to a combination of losses in military
operations
f
or defections, ISS has remained relatively small. In June
2017, a defector from Mumin’s ISS group reportedly told Puntland
authorities that the faction contained only 70 members, almost en-
tirely based in the eastern Bari region of the country.
30
The defector
also claimed that the group was so low on funds and supplies that it
often resorts to stealing livestock and food and to extorting locals.
31
It is likely that this June 2017 number has risen following increased
recruitment efforts in Puntland, the main source of ISS recruit-
e However, as these numbers are mutable, it could well be the case that more
than 20 left with him. For more, see Bill Roggio, “US adds Islamic State
commander in Somalia to list of global terrorists,” FDD’s Long War Journal,
August 31, 2016.
f For instance, Mumin’s faction reportedly lost 30 fighters in the battles at
Qandala, according to Harun Maruf. Harun Maruf, “Forces Retake Somali
Town Held by Pro-Islamic State Fighters,” VOA News, December 7, 2016.
Abdulqadir Mumin is pictured at an ISS training camp named after Bashir Abu Numan somewhere in Puntland, Somalia, in 2016. (Furat)
